|
|
| Home » Carbon management » Peak oil
|
|
Peak oil |
|
Peak oil refers to that point of time when petroleum extraction reaches its maximum, globally. After the peak oil level is reached there is a terminal decline in oil production worldwide. Peak oil concept is based on the actual production of individual wells and aggregate production of wells in an oil field.
M. King Hubbert in his ‘peak theory’ argued that the rate of production of a limited resource follows a symmetrical bell shape with time and annual production being measured in the horizontal and vertical axes respectively. Petroleum experts Matthew Simmons and Kenneth S. Deffeyes opine that heavy dependence of industrial, transportation and agricultural sectors on oil will ultimately lead to decline in oil production and consequent price increase.
Demand for oil
World demand for crude oil increased at an average rate of nearly 1.76% between 1994 and 2006 with a peak of almost 3.4% in 2003-04. After 2006 till 2030 the demand for oil is expected to rise by 37%. In other words, the daily demand is projected to increase from 86 million barrels in 2006 to 118 million barrels in 2030 largely due to increased demand of transportation sector. In United States almost 68.9% of total oil requirement is consumed by the transport sector, whereas the worldwide consumption of oil for this sector is 55%. USA with an estimated consumption of 20.7 million barrels a day is world’s highest consumer.
Supply of oil
Conventional crude oil is extracted by boring wells using primary, secondary and tertiary methods. These conventional reserves are categorized as proven, probable, and possible. Of the total reserves specified, a proven reserve will have a 90% - 95% chance of containing that amount, a probable reserve will have around 50% chance of containing that specified amount, and a possible reserve will have about 5% to 10% chance of the claimed reserve. Current methods of extraction can make available 40% of the total oil reserves.
|
|
|
|
|
|